Texans Hold Em': Betting on Peyton Manning's Future
By Zachary R. Williams
When the Indianapolis Colts decide any day now to release quarterback Peyton Manning he will be the biggest free agent to hit the market since Reggie White in 1994 and Joe Montana in 1993. Of all of the 32 teams in the NFL, 19 teams have a chance in my opinion to take a gamble on one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. Every single day there are stories and blogs that report that he is going here or he is going there or that he is going to retire. Everyone from NFL reporters and insiders Adam Schefter, Chris Mortensen, Peter King, John Clayton, to Colts owner Jim Irsay and even actor Rob Lowe has shared their knowledge and opinion on the subject. However the pursuit of Peyton Manning will come down to a simple game of Texas hold em. Once you take a look at the teams that don't need his services, that desperately need his services, teams that he puts over the top and the teams that are the right fight it really does come down to odds at a poker table. The rules are going to be based on the fact that Peyton Manning is going to be healthy. According to doctors around the NFL, 70% of the players who have had their neck fused have come back successfully. This game of no-limit winner- takes- all of Texas hold em might make World Series of Poker Winners Johnny Chan and Doyle Brosan sweat. Peyton Manning is holding the ace of clubs and ace of diamonds on the draw and now let's see how this plays out.
The Flop
Teams that don’t need Peyton Manning
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| Ten of Diamonds |
Green Bay Packers-Aaron Rodgers
New England Patriots-Tom Brady
New Orleans Saints-Drew Brees
New York Giants-Eli Manning
Pittsburg Steelers-Ben Roethlisberger
San Diego Chargers-Phillip Rivers
Philadelphia Eagles-Michael Vick
Detroit Lions-Matthew Stafford
Atlanta Falcons-Matt Ryan
Carolina Panthers-Cam Newton
Cincinnati Bengals-Andy Dalton
Buffalo Bills-Ryan Fitzpatrick (Bills just paid him a boat load)
Indianapolis Colts-Andrew Luck (first pick in 2012 draft)
Teams that need Peyton Manning because of poor QB play
Washington Redskins
 |
| Where have you gone Dean Cain? |
Miami Dolphins
Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers
Denver Broncos (Sorry Tebow fans)
Non Play-Off Teams that would become a play-off contender with Peyton Manning
Seattle Seahawks
 |
| Gronkowski the King of Clubs |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
St. Louis Rams
Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland Browns
Kanas City Chiefs
Dallas Cowboys
Minnesota Vikings
Chicago bears
Chicago bears
Fourth Street
Teams that Peyton Manning would put over the top
 |
| King of Hearts |
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers
New York Jets
Houston Texans
Baltimore Ravens
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| Peyton is God, not Lemmy |
The River
Final Peyton Manning Destination
Houston Texans
I am sure that when you saw that I am predicting that Peyton Manning will be suiting up with the Houston Texans, next season that your jaw hit the keyboard of your computer or you think I am completely high because they have Matt Schaub. Let me explain…. Before I get to the Texans, let’s discuss some of the other serious or loud suitors for Peyton Manning’s services in 2012. I guarantee any of my friends who are Washington Redskins or Philadelphia Eagles fans didn't see Donovan McNabb being traded to the Washington Redskins. Not many people saw Michael Vick to the Philadelphia Eagles when he was released from prison because the Eagles already had Donovan McNabb and Kevin Kolb on the roster. It's not the teams that are yelling and screaming that usually land the deal.
Washington Redskins
The Redskins usually win the NFL off season with their big free agent splashes but more times than not, it’s their fans that get soaked with unfilled and overblown expectations. The Washington Redskins have not won the Super Bowl since the 1991-1992 season. Washington is hungry to get back to the success they exhibited under Joe Gibbs 1.0 from 1982-1991 when they went to four Super Bowls, winning three. Picking up Peyton Manning would be a step in the right direction to get this storied franchise back to the top of the heap.
Since Daniel Snyder bought the Washington Redskins in May 1999 he has lead the Redskins charge to continually over pay aging veterans. Did Bruce Smith live up to his contract? No. How about Jeff George? No. How about Deion Sanders? No. How about Adam Archuleta? No. How about Donovan McNabb? No. How about Albert Haynesworth? No. You get my point. Not to mention, the Redskins offensive line is not one of their strengths and with Peyton Manning one serious hit away from retirement, he can’t land on the Redskins. Not even getting to play his brother, Eli Manning twice-a-year will be enticing enough to make the Nation’s Capital, Peyton Manning’s new home. But their story will have a happy ending.
New York Jets
The New York Jets is an interesting team because of the team has good pieces on defense and a solid running game. Rex Ryan has never hid the fact, that Peyton Manning is the only quarterback he fears and Manning is 4-1 lifetime against Rex Ryan led defenses. However, there are two reasons why the New York Jets will not be giving Peyton Manning the hunter green and white number 18. One, he is a family guy and he doesn’t want to detract from his brother’s, Eli Manning’s success with the New York Giants. Now that Eli has surpassed Peyton’s Super Bowl ring total with two, if Peyton Manning went to the New York Jets, he would quickly be the most talked about New York area athlete surpassing New York Yankee Derek Jeter and his brother and he wouldn’t want to do that. This is a no-win situation for Peyton Manning because let’s say he gets to the Super Bowl and loses the New York media would have a field day especially with Eli’s perspicacity to get under achieving regular season New York Giants teams to win titles. Two, New York Jets running back Ladainian Tomlinson and fourth-string quarterback Greg McElroy have said that the locker room is a dumpster fire (me paraphrasing) and Peyton Manning doesn’t have time in his short window to win to listen Santonio Holmes and others constantly complain.
Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins have a lot to like if you are Peyton Manning, a talented wide receiver in Brandon Marshall, running backs Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas, a young and developing tight end in Anthony Fasano and while the stadium is outdoors it is in South Beach so he will be playing in great conditions 10-12 games a year. But I don’t think the Dolphins have enough to get over on Tom Brady and the New Patriots and win the AFC East. So the fish get swished under the weight of a few better options.
Arizona Cardinals
The last time the Arizona Cardinals went to the Super Bowl, the quarterback under center was a aging two-time NFL MVP named Kurt Warner. There is no question, that elite wide receiver, Larry Fitzgerald would benefit from have Peyton Manning deliver passes to him. Plus, the Cardinals play in a retractable roof stadium that would again allow for almost perfect playing conditions. Another reason for Manning to go to the desert is because the Cardinals play in the AFC West, which is year -in and year- out the easiest division in football. While the Cardinals are not happy with the progress of last off-season’s acquisition, Kevin Kolb, I am not sure that they are willing to immediately eat most of that huge contract.
San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers have an elite defense, a top-five running back in Frank Gore, good weather and a quarterback who has mostly under-achieved in Alex Smith. Smith showed flashes this year of why the 49ers selected him number one back in 2005 but they have been few and far between. If Manning went to the 49ers they would be the likely odds-on-favorite to win the aforementioned easy AFC West and would be front-runner to win the NFC. But Jim Harbaugh, like Peyton Manning, is a control freak and I am not sure he would be willing to give Manning complete control over the offense. Let’s not forget that Manning replaced Harbaugh as quarterback in Indianapolis and Harbaugh coached Andrew Luck, the Colts most likely new quarterback at Stanford. That would make for some strange bedfellows.
Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens will be trying very hard to land Manning for four reasons. The first reason is their defense is aging very quickly and future hall of famer, Ray Lewis might have one more year left to get his second ring. Two, for too many years, the Ravens organization and fans have long held the position that the Ravens would have won more titles if they had better quarterback play. Don’t get me wrong, Joe Flacco responded to the internal criticism in the 2012 AFC title game against the New England Patriot and outplayed Tom Brady. But much like, Alex Smith, those times have been limited. The third reason is the Ravens have one of the best all-around running backs with Ray Rice. Most of Manning’s most-productive years were with Edgerrin James in Indianapolis. The ability to sell the best play-action passing game in the business would not only make Ray Rice a unstoppable beast, but it would help out the wide receiving corps led by Anquan Boldin and second-year wide out Torrey Smith. The last reason would be that Baltimore could hand Jim Irsay and the Indianapolis Colts the biggest screw you ever in sports. Twenty-eight years ago, Jim Irsay’s father, Robert Irsay moved the Colts from Baltimore to Indianapolis in the middle of the night and Baltimore has never forgiven the Irsays. Even to this day, the scoreboard in M&T stadium in Baltimore reads INDY and not the Colts when the Colts play the Ravens. Baltimore fans could sleep a little better if the Ravens could take Manning from Indianapolis. Just imagine the Ravens allowing Manning to wear the black cleats like Johnny Unitas. It would be one of the slowest forms of payback in the history. I see a Hollywood movie written all over it if that is the way the story ended. But the Ravens are going to finish a close second in the chase to Peyton Manning.
Houston Texans
The Houston Texans need Peyton Manning as much as Peyton Manning needs the Texans. I know what some of you are thinking that there is no way that the Colts allow Manning to go to a division rival. If the Colts don't pay Manning $28 million dollars by March 8, 2012 Peyton Manning can go wherever he wants to go because he becomes an unrestricted free agent. Just like Tiger Woods in golf, Peyton Manning understands the power of legacy and he wants to be regarded as the best ever to play the position. Without Manning taking a single snap, the Indianapolis Colts dropped their first 13 games and finished with a league worst 2-14 record. Manning is arguably the greatest regular season quarterback of all-time but his 9-10 playoff record hurts him when the debate of who is the best quarterback of all-time. If he joins the Houston Texans, I believe he will finish with at least another title and get back in the conversation of greatest quarterback of all-time.
The Houston Texans sport an elite running back in Arian Foster, an elite wide receiver in Andre Johnson, a sure-handed tight end in Owen Daniels and a indoor stadium (if they choose to close the retractable roof and they will) Does that set-up sound familiar? That is the same set-up that the Colts had from the late 1990s until 2006. The Texans also have an elite young defense that is led by defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. Within one year, Wade Phillips, who was fired as the Dallas Cowboys head coach midway through the 2010 season came into the Houston in 2011 and elevated that defense from a bottom-rung defense to a top three defense. Over the last half-decade the Texans have built a defense around the premise of how to defend Peyton Manning. In 2006, against the advice of many draft experts, the Houston Texans went with defensive end Mario Williams instead of Reggie Bush. This was a calculated move to get to the quick release of Peyton Manning. In the future drafts the Houston Texans added linebackers DeMaco Ryans, Brian Cushing and defensive end JJ Watt. Another benefit to playing in Houston is that Manning stays in the AFC South; the same division that he helped the Colts dominate for the last decade. As the signal caller for the Colts he knew how to beat Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans on a regular basis. By joining the Houston Texans, he can help the Texans defeat the Colts. Even in the 2011 season when the Colts won two games one of them was against the Texans.
Houston Texans head coach Gary Kubiak was the Denver Broncos offensive coordinator when John Elway hoisted the Lombardi trophy in back-to-back years to end his career. Kubiak knows how to develop an offense around an aging hall-of-fame quarterback, with an elite running back and out-of-this-world receiving target. Don’t forget that Greg Robinson assembled a dominating defense that was ranked number one and number eight in points allowed in 1997-98 and 1998-99, respectively and that defensive prowess is already set in Houston with Wade Phillips. Even with all of that, how are the Texans going to give up on Matt Schaub? Matt Schaub will be entering his ninth season, as an NFL quarterback, and it will be his sixth for the Houston Texans. How many playoff wins he has accumulated with great offensive talent? Zero. The lone Houston Texans playoff win came this year with third-string quarterback TJ Yates leading the way against the Cincinnati Bengals in the wildcard weekend showdown.
During his five year tenure with the Texans he is 32-32 not exactly a world-beater record. In two of the last four NFL seasons, Matt Schaub has missed at least five games due to injury. While Manning did miss the entire 2011 season with his third neck surgery, up until that point he had never missed a single start. Releasing Matt Schaub from his contract in Houston would only hit the Texans $8.3million not a huge amount to overcome if Manning does decide to play for a performance-laden contract. Don’t feel bad for Matt Schaub because I think he is going to be reunited with his former Houston Texans offensive coordinator and current Washington Redskins offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan in Washington D.C. This is a huge pick up for the Redskins because their quarterback play has been horrendous the last couple of years and this solidifies the quarterback position for five years or more. This will allow them to go and get a wide receiver with their sixth pick in this upcoming 2012 draft and not have to reach on selecting Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill with the pick. This will move wide receiver Santana Moss to the slot and give the Redskins a wide receiver that can stretch the field and open up their running game. This is the better option for the Redskins because at best Manning would be a stopgap for three years. Schaub will also feel at home in D.C. because he played his college football at the university of Virginia. As for Manning, if you can’t beat them, join them. Houston you will no longer have a problem because your biggest pain in the neck since 2002 will now lead your team to out-of-this-world results that the city of Houston has gotten used to since 1961.
